Wann und wie kommt der nächste Crash?

[faultcode]

23.1.
Goldman Says Momentum Traders to Sell Stocks in ‘Every Scenario’
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-says-momentum-traders…
...
No matter which way markets go, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says some traders are modeled to sell stocks over the next week.

Cullen Morgan, an equity derivatives and flows specialist at the bank, expects that commodity trading advisers, or CTAs that surf the momentum of asset prices through long and short bets in the futures market, could be forced to sell after building $129 billion in long positions.

The trend-following cohort are modeled to sell $10 billion in a rising market, and up to $42 billion if stocks decline, over the next week. On a longer time frame of one month, CTAs are likely to buy $42 billion in a rising market versus $226 billion to sell should markets start to trend lower again.
...

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 74.785.685 von faultcode am 10.11.23 21:28:45

Pharma- und Biotech rocken wieder:


<Range Cancer Therapeutics ETF, $CNCR>

[faultcode]

4.1.
What history says about stocks and the bond market ahead of a first Fed rate cut
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-history-says-about-st…
...
Stocks, meanwhile, have tended to see a relatively flat performance in the three-month run-up to an initial cut, Kalish observed in a separate note this week, and has never rallied more than 11% over that stretch.

After that first rate cut, however, stocks have tended to rally over the next six to seven months, with the S&P 500 seeing a mean gain of 12%, Kalish said. Over the entire easing cycle, stocks have seen a mean rise of around 21% and a median rise of 15.4%.

The S&P 500 has rallied over every easing cycle since 1970, with the exception of a 27.6% drop between Jan. 3, 2001, and June 25, 2003, following the collapse of the tech bubble.
...

=> also bei US-Aktien: erst flach, dann nach der ersten Zinssenkung ein Anstieg seit 1970 -- außer nach dem Platzen der Dotcom-Blase 2001 - 2003

[faultcode]

3.1.
Stock Skeptics Say $6 Trillion Cash Waiting on Sidelines Is a Mirage
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-skeptics-6-trillion-cas…
...
One often-made argument in favor of stocks says investors should dive in before roughly $6 trillion of money-market cash gets redeployed into equity assets globally.

But buying the theory requires a big leap of faith — there’s significantly less out there to actually fund riskier gambles.

So say a pack of stock skeptics who, while not counseling selling out of the market, warn that some of the bull cases going around suffer from some optimistic framings.

Among them is Deborah Cunningham of Federated Hermes, who estimates that at least 80% of the nearly $1 trillion that’s poured into money-market funds since March’s financial system woes represents depositors leaving banks, rather than people waiting for entry points in equities and credit.

“It’s come through the deposit market, through the retail trade, with the likelihood of that being very sticky,” Cunningham said in a late-December interview on Bloomberg Television.
...

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 75.026.228 von faultcode am 29.12.23 00:51:34

29.12.2023

Zitat von faultcode: ... => gesund ist das mMn nicht und daher könnte der Januar bei den Large caps in den USA mMn enttäuschen, weil die Trader ihre Capital gains, oder einen Teil davon, ins neue Jahr schleppten, um in 2023 kurz vor Schluss noch Steuern zu vermeiden

es sieht so aus:

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 71.520.621 von faultcode am 08.05.22 16:40:06

30.11.
Roundhill MEME ETF to Shut Down Despite Strong Performance in 2023
The Roundhill MEME ETF will close in December due to a lack of investor interest. Here's what investors need to know.
https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/other-memes/roundhill-m…
...

=>


https://www.t-online.de/finanzen/boerse/etf/roundhill-meme-e…

[8-lagig]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 74.966.596 von matjung am 14.12.23 16:53:30

Zitat von matjung: Der nächste Crash könnte kommen wenn die Zentralbanken anfangen den Zins zu senken.
Solange die Wirtschaft läuft, senken sie nicht..

Hat sich eigentlich schon mal ein schlauer Kopf, oder sonst jemand, Gedanken drüber gemacht was passiert an den Aktienmärkten wenn die Ukraine den Krieg verliert ?
Will keiner hören, ist aber nicht ausgeschlossen.
Ok, Rheinmetall dürfte safe sein, aber der Rest ?

[faultcode]

Boeing's Monster moves: RSI|14 von <= 20 auf > 80 in 2 1/2 Monaten:



=> gesund ist das mMn nicht und daher könnte der Januar bei den Large caps in den USA mMn enttäuschen, weil die Trader ihre Capital gains, oder einen Teil davon, ins neue Jahr schleppten, um in 2023 kurz vor Schluss noch Steuern zu vermeiden

[faultcode]

27.12.
A record share of S&P 500 stocks have underperformed the index in 2023 as ‘weirdest bull market in decades’ marches on
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-record-share-of-s-p-500-…
...
For what its worth, RSP (Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF/FC) is on the verge of a “golden cross” as its 50-day moving average nears its 200-day moving average, as many of the market’s laggards have narrowed the performance gap with traders pricing in multiple Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts in 2024.
...

=>

[faultcode]

<$OUST: tax loss selling: ich war hier zu impulsiv: https://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/1336912-1-10/ous… => merke: "sector powerhouse" != "powerhouse"; eine nachhaltige Kurserholung wird - auch nach den letzten Rückschlägen bei auton.Fahrzeugen in den USA (*) - mMn länger dauern>


(*) https://consent.yahoo.com/v2/collectConsent?sessionId=3_cc-s…