Banco Bradesco - Brasiliens größte Bank ein Kauf?

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Q4: https://www.bradescori.com.br/en/market-information/results-…



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"Economic and Financial Analysis Report":

The year 2023 was challenging, but adjustment initiatives we implemented have already begun to show positive effects. The default began to fall and we reaccelerated the origination of credit in retail.

The year of 2024 will be transitional, as indicated in the guidance.

Aware of the need for transformation of the bank, we are now accelerating and deepening the changes in Bradesco. We started to execute a strategic plan unparalleled in the history of the bank. We will transform business, and accelerate the agendas of people, culture and technology. The success of this transformation will enable us to improve our profitability. We believe in a trajectory of recovery of profitability over time, with more evident signs starting in 2025.

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12.12.
Brazil’s Annual Inflation Cools, Bolstering Case for More Interest Rate Cuts
https://news.yahoo.com/brazil-annual-inflation-cools-bolster…
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Official data released Tuesday showed consumer prices rose 4.68% in November from a year earlier, just below the 4.7% median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Monthly inflation hit 0.28%.

This year, the central bank targets annual inflation at 3.25% with a tolerance range of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.

Amid signs that Latin America’s largest economy is slowing down, policymakers are planning to lower the benchmark Selic by a half-point on Wednesday, to 11.75%, and then again in January. High borrowing costs have served to control consumer prices that climbed alongside the lifting of Covid-era restrictions, but they are now weighing heavily on the growth outlook for next year.
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2.10.
Brazil to Cap Credit Card Rates Averaging 450% at 100%
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brazil-cap-credit-card-rates-…
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Brazil’s Senate approved legislation to limit the growth of credit card debt to 100% of its original amount, an attempt to cap interest rates that currently average nearly 450%.

Lawmakers passed the bill by acclamation Monday, a day before the expiration of a provisional measure that included the cap. The lower house of congress approved the bill in September, meaning it is now on track to become law.

Once it is enacted, credit card issuers will have 90 days to submit their own regulatory proposal that will need authorization from Brazil’s national monetary council. The cap will take effect only if the companies fail to win approval for their regulation.

Brazil’s interest rates on revolving credit have skyrocketed to an average of almost 446%, their highest level since 2017, according to data compiled by the central bank.

Household debt remains near record highs, with outstanding loans representing almost half of disposable income. About 28% of monthly wages is used to repay some sort of debt, from credit cards to mortgages.
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11.8.
Brazil Rolls Out $350 Billion Investment Plan to Boost Economy
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brazil-rolls-350-billion-inve…
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President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Friday unveiled a $350 billion infrastructure investment program designed to boost Brazil’s economy and kickstart a green transition.

Most of the amount - $264 billion - will be invested through 2026. The leftist leader and his allies have pitched the plan as a Brazilian version of laws backed by President Joe Biden that sought to stimulate the US economy with roughly $1 trillion in new infrastructure projects and clean energy initiatives.

The proposal carries the same name of an investment plan Lula created in 2007, during his previous presidency — Growth Acceleration Plan, or PAC.

This time, however, Lula’s government says it will pay special attention to his environmental agenda and campaign promises to prioritize sustainable economic development.

It will rely on a mix of federal funds, concessions and public-private partnerships to help finance a combination of transportation, sanitation and ecological transition projects.

The program will include $220 billion from public funds and $125 billion from the private sector, according to a statement on Friday. Energy transition projects will receive a total of $110 billion.

Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, Petroleo Brasileiro SA, will again play a relevant role in the new investment program. The oil giant has a $78-billion, five-year strategic plan and is mulling an increase for the period between 2024 and 2028. It plans to earmark as much as 15% of total investments for low-carbon projects.
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Brasilien nach der Zinswende:


https://tradingeconomics.com/brazil/interest-rate

=> Banco Bradesco S/A Preferred:

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17.7.
Greg Coffey’s Hedge Fund Says Markets Are Wrong on Brazil Rates
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/greg-coffey-hedge-fund-says-1…
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Macro trader Greg Coffey is betting there’s room for Brazil’s central bank to embark on a much more aggressive easing cycle when policymakers gather next month.

Coffey, whose Kirkoswald Asset Management has posted double-digit returns the last four years, said Brazil’s central bank would be “fully justified” in cutting interest rates by a full percentage point at the next meeting, according to an excerpt of an investor letter seen by Bloomberg.

The nation’s “underlying economy, structural fiscal improvement, and most importantly the inflation dynamic, call for much more than” the just over quarter-point reduction the market is pricing in, Kirkoswald wrote in the letter, which was sent to investors on Friday.
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14.6.
Brazil Credit Outlook Raised to Positive by S&P Amid Fiscal Reform
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brazil-credit-outlook-raised-…
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S&P, which cut the nation’s credit score to junk back in 2015, cited better-than-expected data and the government’s emerging framework for fiscal policy as reasons for the outlook change.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s economic team introduced earlier this year a new fiscal framework aiming at stabilizing the country’s debt load. The proposal cleared a key step in congress last month, with lawmakers approving a stricter version of the bill, a move that pleased investors.

There’s now more visibility on policy direction and the risk of economic reforms “being reversed or poorly implemented” has dropped, S&P said in a Wednesday statement.

“Measures implemented over recent years have helped contain risks to macroeconomic stability posed by low growth and high government debt,” the ratings firm said. “The trajectory of GDP growth and public finances has been better than previously expected, helping to contain the risks that otherwise could have undermined monetary policy and Brazil’s net external position.”

S&P affirmed Brazil’s rating at BB-, three notches below investment grade. That’s in line with countries including South Africa, Honduras and Uzbekistan.
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7.6.
Brazil Consumer Prices Rise Much Less Than Expected as Interest Rate Cut Bets Mount
https://news.yahoo.com/brazil-consumer-prices-rise-much-1402…
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Official data released Wednesday showed consumer prices rose 3.94% from a year earlier, less than all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of analysts that had a 4.04% median estimate. Monthly inflation stood at 0.23%.

Swaps rates on the contract due on January 2024, which indicate investors’ sentiment toward monetary policy at the end of this year, dropped six basis points in morning trading as investors weighed odds that borrowing cost cuts could begin soon. The real fell 0.2% to 4.9210 per dollar.

The Brazilian economy started the year with surprising strength in the face of high interest rates. But President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is demanding central bankers start cutting borrowing costs to aid his efforts to stimulate growth and improve living standards for workers.
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1.6.
Rate-Cut Whispers Breathe Life Into Brazil’s Dismal Debt Markets
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/rate-cut-whispers-breathe-life-164…
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Across Brazil’s dilapidated credit markets, investors are starting to whisper a new mantra in the face of double-digit interest rates and corporate malaise: The pain can’t last forever.

The desperation for easier credit conditions is palpable nine months after central bankers in Latin America’s largest economy pinned their benchmark interest rates at 13.75%. Bond deals are still struggling to gain traction, bankruptcies are rising and investors keep on pulling cash out of Brazilian domestic bond funds.

But in the wreckage of high borrowing costs and the aftershocks of century-old retailer Americanas SA’s collapse, inflation is starting to retreat. That’s raising expectations for a policy pivot that would reinvigorate the bond market.
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For now, though, any real change in markets is limited to perception.

The extra yield demanded to hold local inflation-linked securities over US Treasuries remains far higher than it was at the turn of the year, though it narrowed slightly in May, according to data compiled by ABC Bank Research.

The same goes for signs of thawing in the nation’s primary debt markets. Brazilian companies and authorities have sold just $12 billion of bonds in global and local markets this year through the end of May — a 51% drop from the same period of 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The silver lining is that corporate bond sellers are again starting to test investor sentiment with new deals in the pipeline. Oil and gas company 3R Petroleum Oleo e Gas SA said this month it approved a plan to sell 3.5 billion reais ($695 million) of local notes, while construction firm Aegea Saneamento e Participacoes SA is working with banks to issue at least 3 billion reais of domestic notes.
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[GreenLantern1]

Habe Banco Bradesco diesen Di. verkauft und in einen Semicon umgeschichtet.

Bradesco ist zwar ein Monatszahler mit günstigem KGV, aber mir ist aktuell die Dividende etwa zu gering im Vergleich zu anderen (Banco do Brasil).

Vielleicht steige ich später wieder hier ein.