Bombardier im Höhenflug :-) (Seite 65)

[neu_gierig]

Tatsächlich sind es 15% MINUS

in den letzten 2 Tagen geworden!!! Hmm, habs zwar eh befürchtet, aber ehrlich, nicht wirklich erwartet!!
zumindest gestern hätte ich gedacht, ja am Anfang kurz GRÜN, dann noch mal ROT aber am Ende dann doch wieder GRÜN!!!
ABER wie so oft, es kommt anders als man denkt!
Umsatz ok, aber falsche Richtung, dunkelROT mit 1,4 Mio Stk. Umsatz, wow, dass ist schon mal wieder ordentlicher SCH..., naja, zwar wie gedacht, aber ok!
Heute denke ich noch immer, ab n.Woche wieder GRÜNER, ob dunkelGRÜNER werden wir sehen, vl. noch etwas zu früh, schauma mal... Am Dienstag (Montag ist Ruhetag) evtl. noch die 55 C$ testen - tiefer sollte es aber nicht mehr gehen, aber wer weiß, womöglich gibt es doch noch einen "Ausverkauf" - aber dann......📈📈
Und ja, die neuen Kursziele sind nat. toll, aber wieviel sie schl.endlich wert sind, hmm, die Frage ist ja auch, für wann sie ausgegeben sind? 12-18 Mte, ja passt eh, da sind wir ja eh gleicher Meinung, immer schon gewesen, 2024/25, und vor einem Jahr gab es auch "Ziele" mit Kursen von heute, hat ja gepasst, oder?
Also, wie immer - BITTE warten, relaxen und zurücklehnen, usw.usw....😎

[neu_gierig]

Danke LUKI,

für diese tollen Beiträgen, ABER die sind ja alle POSiTiV, wo hast die denn nur her?
Wochenlang nur negativ, negativ, negative Meldungen, dann gestern die Zahlen NUR NEGATIV und heute kommen POSITIVE, noch dazu werden da die Ziele schon wieder hochgeschraubt, als ob sie nur auf einen Knopf drücken müssten und schon haben wir höhere Ziele....
Also wirklich, das kann ja nicht sein, FAKTEN, FAKTEN, FAKTEN müssen her, nur dann kann der Kurs etwas steigen, aber nur ViELLEICHT!!

So, jez im ERNST - unglaublich tolle Beiträge, schon fast nicht zu glauben, dass da nur ein einziger Tag nur annähernd ROT sein könnte, was sehen wir, AUSVERKAUF!! NAja, nicht ganz, aber echtes Theater, bzw. schon fast kriminell, aber nicht umsonst schimpfe ich sie bereits V......!!!
jaja, ich wiederhole mich immer wieder, aber es ärgert halt, wenn so was passiert, aber es ist halt KANADA!!!
Aber ok, ich bleibe dabei, kaufe auch immer wieder mal das eine oder andere Stück, aber zu Bomblastig möchte ich dann auch wieder nicht werden....
in diesem Sinne, schöWoende!

[Luki123]

RBC---STOCK Reallyyyyyyyyyy CHEAPPPPPPPP

RBC: Share price reaction not warranted
Share price reaction not warranted, in our view

Our view: BBD shares sold off today following a FCF "miss", however we flag: 1) FCF was only off by $100MM; 2) the entirety of this miss was due to a non-core $100MM RVG payment; 3) FCF included a significant $500MM inventory build; and 4) that build is in advance of a significant up tick in deliveries in H2, which should be positive to both EBITDA and FCF. All combined this speaks to a very strong quarter - and certainly not warranting a>10% selloff in our view. Reiterate BBD as a top investment idea across our coverage universe today.

Key points:

• Q2/23 beat. EBITDA of $275MM, was above consensus $246MM - and even above our street-high $265MM. Variance was due entirely due to margin, which was 16.4% (cons 14.5%) - as deliveries of 29 jets was in-line. FCF was lower at usage of ($222MM) vs consensus ($118MM) but meaningfully understated as it included a $500MM impact from inventory build and $100MM due to a (final) RVG payment associated with the company's (divested) CRJ business. Order backlog was solid at 1.1x, which is important as the <1x recorded in Q1 was a sticking point for many. Overall, a solid quarter for BBD.

• Deliveries set to accelerate rapidly in H2. With delivery guidance in place for >138 aircraft, we thought the company would have had to deliver more than it did in Q2 to hit that target. Compelling is that the company still beat our EBITDA estimate on 3 fewer planes — which is very bullish vis-a-vis aircraft pricing and operating margin trends. And by maintaining its guidance despite the lower delivery; the company is pointing to a significant acceleration in deliveries in H2. We see this as (very) positive to EBITDA and FCF in H2, and an important catalyst for the shares in our view.

• Demand in new areas encouraging. Mgmt flagged new order strength in APAC, fleet operators and Defense. Certified Pre-Owned revenue is another new revenue source (in nascent stages) — which combined all represent a step function increase in revenue going forward.

• Estimates higher. Based on current trends, we see no choice but to go even more above guidance for both 2023 and 2025. Even assuming a much lower margin in H2 (at 200-300bps lower in H2/23 vs Q2/23) our 2023 EBITDA of $1,154MM (up from $1,144MM), goes even further above mgmt guidance of $1,125MM and our 2025 of $1,645MM (from $1,640) is well above guidance of $1,500MM. Accordingly, we see a guidance raise for 2023 and (again) for 2025 — key catalysts to the stock in our view.

• Stock really cheap. Our PT of $104 is based on our 2025 estimates on which we apply a 7.5x EV/EBITDA multiple (a full 25% discount to peers). Accordingly, the meaningful upside potential has now become even more attractive on today's (surprising) sell-off. Continue to view Bombardier as our #1 investment idea across our coverage universe today.

[Luki123]

TD von 87$ auf 92$

TD: Target at 92$ (from 87$)
Q2/23; Results & Execution Point to Continuing Upside

Event

This morning, Bombardier reported Q2/23 Adjusted EBITDA of $275 million, compared to our forecast of $259 million and consensus of $245 million.

Impact: SLIGHTLY POSITIVE

We are increasing our target to C$92.00 from C$87.00 and maintaining our BUY recommendation. The increased target is due to the impact of a shift forward of our valuation period by one quarter, slightly higher valuation-period forecast Adjusted EBITDA, and lower valuation-period forecast net debt. The changes in our forecasts are primarily due to the net impact of the carry-forward of a portion of the strongerthan-expected Q2/23 revenue and margin, and other minor modelling updates.

Bombardier reported a strong quarter, with Adjusted EBITDA and margins coming in stronger-than-forecast and a unit book-to-bill ratio (1.1x) that is supportive of our delivery expectations through at least 2025. The greater-than-forecast FCF usage, which was primarily due to inventory investments in advance of H2 deliveries, does not concern us given management commentary, unchanged 2023 FCF guidance, and normal seasonal influences on working capital. We believe that management has done a commendable job of proactively managing the supply chain and maintaining 2023 delivery guidance against a backdrop in which competitors are now anticipating modest delivery slippage from 2023 to 2024. We believe that today's pull-back in the share price is not based on fundamentals, and presents an attractive opportunity to acquire a company with earnings growth, declining leverage, continually increasing credibility and which is trading at a material discount to its comp group.

We believe that Bombardier's backlog provides good earnings visibility through 2025, and although business jet activity is moderating from the unsustainably high levels of H1/22, we view the moderation as constructive for limiting long-term volatility and the health of the cycle. Our target multiple of 8.0x represents a 20% discount to its comp-group five-year pre-pandemic average, and compares with the current forward multiple of approximately 6.9x.

TD Investment Conclusion

We believe that Bombardier's business aviation franchise is strong and that the declining financial leverage, backlog, production plans, and free-cash-flow visibility justify a higher share price.

[Luki123]

69$ aber genauso positiv wie die anderen Analysten

CIBC: Good visibility into H2 positive scenario has a 92 $ SP.

Our Conclusion

BBD’s shares were down 9% on the back of Q2 results that exceeded expectations on earnings but missed on FCF. The company did maintain its 2023 guidance. We chalk up this negative reaction to the cadence in how FCF will materialize with it being much more Q4-weighted than initially expected. That said, the near-term FCF outlook is directly correlated with deliveries, which the company looks to have good visibility on through H2. We continue to see BBD making good progress on hitting its 2023 and 2025 financial targets. Our underlying outlook for the company has not changed coming out of Q2 earning season with minimal adjustments to our model. As such, we keep our Neutral rating and C$69 price target.

Key Points

Good Visibility On Deliveries:

BBD’s 29 aircraft deliveries in Q2 brings total aircraft delivers in H1 to 51 versus its 2023 delivery target of over 138. The company has been focused on building the inventory. With the aircrafts built and ready to go, and with line rates holding steady and supply chain issues manageable, BBD has good line of sight on the deliveries through the back half of the year. The company noted a bulk of these deliveries will occur in Q4 which also signals that this will be the FCF heavy quarter.

How Realistic Is It That Q4 Can Generate $600+MM in FCF?:

BBD maintained its FCF target of $250MM for the year, implying positive FCF of ~$720MM in H2 given H1 FCF of $(469)MM. While BBD will need to execute against its delivery plan to hit its FCF target, and we recognize the appearance is that the company does not have a lot of wiggle room as we noted above, the company has good visibility on deliveries. In addition, we would note the company has executed well over the past two to three years.

One way we look at BBD’s FCF cadence for the remainder of the year is if we take its 2023 EBITDA guidance, this would infer H2 EBITDA of $638MM. If we deduct interest and capex for the remainder of the year, that gets us to $288MM in operating cash flow before changes in net working capital. In terms of capex, BBD is guiding to $350MM for the year which points to ~$176MM in H2. The last part of the FCF equation is working capital and we are modelling a $441MM tailwind in H2. We see this as being reasonable given it was a $679MM drag in H1 and the company will see a step-up in deliveries and thus unwinding inventory. Getting to $700+MM in FCF in H2 is attainable.

While we are giving BBD credit here on hitting its FCF target this year, we also recognize that the sometimes extreme volatility we see in its quarterly FCF does weigh on its share price and its underlying valuation. The key for the company moving forward will be to reduce the seasonality around its FCF.

[Luki123]

Ergänzung zur Info von neu_hierig gestern von 85$ auf 93$

Nat. Bank : Target at 93$ (from 85$)
Q2/23 results beat; still meaningful potential upside for the stock


Q2 results ahead of forecast

Bombardier reported Q2 results this morning that were ahead of NBF and consensus forecasts while also maintaining its full-year guidance for 2023. For more detail, see our Q2 results Flash (Link to BBD Q2/23 results Flash).

Margins better than expected

Bombardier is making progress toward its 2025 EBITDA margin target of 18% with the adjusted EBITDA margin in Q2 coming in at 16.4% versus our 14.0% forecast and 12.9% in Q2 last year. While the delivery mix can impact margins quarter-to-quarter, the Q2 margin improvement gives us confidence that the company can reach its target in 2025.

Backlog grows

A key investor concern for Bombardier and the broader business jet market is that new orders would slow given the uncertain economic environment. Order backlog increased slightly in Q2 to $14.9 billion compared to $14.8 billion at the end of Q1/23 while the unit book-to-bill came in at 1.1x as order activity continues to be robust. Management remains confident in hitting its 2023 delivery target of 138+ jets and the solid backlog provides visibility on Bombardier's planned delivery ramp to 150 jets in 2025.

Maintain OP; target raised to C$93.00

We maintain our Outperform rating on Bombardier shares and have increased our target to C$93.00 from C$85.00 previously. We see ongoing profitability and cash flow improvements from the company in the coming years supported by a strong backlog and business jet industry dynamics that remain generally positive. If Bombardier can achieve its 2025 EBITDA target of $1.6 billion, based on a reasonable 7.0x EV/EBITDA multiple, we would derive a future valuation of ~C$115.00/share. Using our more conservative 2025 estimate, we still derive an undiscounted future target of ~C$107.00/share, which is materially higher than where the stock is currently trading

[neu_gierig]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 74.259.621 von Roberto24 am 04.08.23 10:25:23

Zitat von Roberto24: Seriöse Firma 🤔🤥😅🤣🤣

Ha,ha, naja, zumindest dachte ich es mir, als ich das erste Mal Aktien von der 💣 kaufte, was soll schiefgehen, dachte nicht im Ernst an eine Pleite, da hätte der Staat sicher nicht zugesehen, UND dann kam der Virus.... DANKE, wer oder was auch immer dafür verantwortlich ist!!!

und ja SERIÖS, aber vl. erst 2025/26 oder auch nicht, egal, zu dieser Zeit verabschiede ich mich dann wieder, hoffentlich bei ca. 150 EURONEN....

[Roberto24]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 74.259.453 von neu_gierig am 04.08.23 10:08:54

Seriöse Firma 🤔🤥😅🤣🤣

[neu_gierig]

Der größte Witz des Jahres?

naja, so kann man es auch sehen, ich sehe es als die größte V...Bude da drüben, eine abs. SAUEREI was da aufgeführt wird!
Im Grunde könnte es mir ja eh wurscht sein, verkaufe nicht vor 2025/26, trotzdem kann ich mich darüber aufregen, weil es einfach auch möglich gemacht wird, dass diese V... -anders kann man diese Händler nicht nennen - freie Hand haben und machen können was sie wollen, nur um andere abzuzocken, ja einfach eine Sauerei!!!!
Aber wenigstens mal anst. Umsatz, haha, (ca. 320.000 in den letzten 40 Min.vorher oft der Tagesumsatz) auch wenn meine 10% nach hinten los gegangen sind, aber ich habe es gestern eh auch geschrieben, auch erwartet, 5,10,15 oder mehr Prozent, hatte so meine Bedenken, bzgl. dieser V...Bude!!!
Naja, es wird wieder Gegenbewegung geben, vl. heute schon, aber ich denke n.Woche wird es wieder GRÜNER und auch dunkler werden!!!
Heute könnte es nochmal ROT werden, evtl. nur am Anfang nach einer kurzen GRÜNEN Phase, vl. sogar bis ca. 58 C$, aber dann ist endgültig SCHLUSS mit LUSTIG, dann ist der größte Witz des Jahres, ähh, eigentlich Jahrzents, wieder Geschichte und hoffentlich wird diese V...Bude dann mal ausgeknockt werden, etwas mehr Seriösität würde der 💣 an der Börse sicher gut tun!
Was mich ja eh wundert, das MM von der 💣 arbeitet ja hervorragend, gibt es dort keine Verantwortlichen, die auf das geschissene Manipulieren des Aktinekurses schauen und evtl. eingreifen können, oder wollen sie vl. gar nicht, warum auch immer....????

JAAA, alles wird GUT, es ist halt sehr ärgerlich, wenn man diese Manipulationen mit ansehen muß, da man ja im Glauben war, sein Geld in eine seriöse Firma investiert zu haben, auch wenn es zum Einstieg ein Pennystock war, hmm, aber vl. war ja auch das ein Teil dieser V...Bude????
😎😎😎

[Luki123]

Das ist der größte Witz des jahres

Noch schlimmer als im März.. gefühlt je besser die Ergebnisse desto mehr wird drauf eingeprügelt.

Einfach unglaublich..