Galapagos NV (Seite 27)

[Bruesssel-Scout]

Zu GLPG0634 werden wohl in Kürze neue klinische Testergebnisse publiziert werden, wahrscheinlich wurden sie Partner-Kandidaten bereits mitgeteilt. Jetzt wird es immer spannender: Wagt und schafft Galapagos den Alleingang mit einem neuen Arthrose-Medikament, verpartnert man sich oder wird Galapagos geschluckt! Wie auch immer - meine Prognose ist die gleiche: Die Aktie macht demnächst einen neuen Sprung nach oben.

[Ackergaul]

http://www.tijd.be/nieuws/ondernemingen_farma/Galapagos_maak…
18:04 - 06 februari 2012 door Jan De Schamphelaere
Galapagos maakt even plotse duik
Het aandeel van Galapagos maakte rond 15 uur een plotse duik van meer dan 8 procent.
Het persagentschap Dow Jones berichtte toen dat het biotechbedrijf zijn jaarprognoses
voor 2011 niet heeft gehaald. Enige nuance is op zijn plaats.
Galapagos gaf in november al aan dat het zijn oorspronkelijke jaardoelstellingen (146 miljoen euro inkomsten
en een positief nettoresultaat) voor 2011 niet zou halen zonder een deal voor zijn potentieel reumamedicijn,
waarvoor Galapagos in december veelbelovende studieresultaten rapporteerde. Die deal is er nog steeds niet.
In die context is het niet halen van de jaardoelstellingen helemaal geen nieuws voor investeerders.
Maar de headline 'Galapagos haalt guidance niet' had wel een grote impact op de beurskoers. Het aandeel
zakte omstreeks 15 uur plots met 8 procent tot onder 10 euro. Een kwartier na het bericht op Dow Jones was
de rust teruggekeerd. Uiteindelijk sloot het aandeel zelfs met winst: +0,7 procent tot 10,69 euro.
Investeerders kijken vooral uit naar de aankondiging van een partner voor het reumaonderzoek GLPA0634.
Onder die code werkte Galapagos jarenlang aan een reumapilletje. Het medicijn heeft twee maanden geleden
uitstekende resultaten opgeleverd. Het is nog wachten of de bijwerkingen van het medicijn na enkele
maanden inname binnen de perken blijven. Dat zal tegen de zomer duidelijk zijn. Indien dat het geval is,
heeft Galapagos een potentiële blockbuster in handen.
Topman Onno van de Stolpe onderhandelt met grote farmabedrijven om samen de laatste patiëntenstudies
uit te voeren. Investeerders hopen op een jackpot. Analisten denken dat zo'n deal onmiddellijk tientallen
miljoenen euro's in de kas van Galapagos zou brengen.
Copyright © De Tijd


Also, frei übersetzt: Umsatzziel für 2011 verfehlt, allerdings wohl nicht um Längen. 634 Verpartnerung noch nicht abgeschlossen, wie wir natürlich wissen...


Grüße

[Ackergaul]

wenn ich schon mal zu SARM das "Potential" hier gepostet habe nun zum JAK:

https://crosscurrentllc.com/uploads/PFE_1-31-12_Trio.pdf
 We think PFE will do an aggressive job of launching tofa. We also think tofa will be used across the spectrum of RA patients, not just withTNF-failure patients. Hence, the drug will have peak sales north of $5 billion, something consensus is underestimating. However, the drug will not be approved until 2H of this year and the sales trend will not be apparent until next year. So, tofa will not serve to drive PFE much higher this year.


Grüße

[Ackergaul]

sollte deutlich machen wie wertvoll das SARM Programm für GLPG werden könnte. GTx ist zwar mit Ostarine in Phase III und GLPG erst in einer Phase I aber es zeigt wie groß derMarkt hier ist. In den nächsten Wochen sollte es Ergebnisse bei 492 geben...
http://www.bizjournals.com/memphis/news/2012/01/30/gtx-inc-s…
GTx Inc. shares soar after Citigroup hikes price target
Memphis Business Journal by Michael Sheffield, Staff writer
Date: Monday, January 30, 2012, 4:03pm CST

Related:Health Care, Technology
Michael Sheffield
Staff writer - Memphis Business Journal

Shares of Memphis-based GTx Inc. surged on Monday after Citigroup Inc. predicted the company is likely to report positive results from Phase III trials of , the company’s latest drug.

GTx's stock rose $1.94, up nearly 50 percent, to close at $5.88 per share.

According to Citigroup (NYSE: C), Ostarine is worth at least $11 per share assuming the Phase III trials are positive. Citigroup added Ostarine to its valuation model for GTx and hiked its target price on the stock from $8 a share to $19. Noting that Ostarine has consistently improved cancer-related lean body mass and physical function in eight prior trials, Citigroup thinks the drug could attract interest from biopharma companies with oncology products.

Ostarine treats the wasting of muscle in cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy. Muscle wasting is a common cancer-related symptom which can begin early in the course of a patient’s malignancy, resulting in decline in physical function and other detrimental clinical consequences. Muscle wasting and muscle weakness are also side effects of many chemotherapy drugs. There are no drugs approved for the prevention and treatment of muscle wasting in patients with cancer, so if Ostarine is approved, it would be one of the first.

Memphis-based GTx (NASDAQ: GTXI) is investing between $12 million and $15 million in the trial, which will include physical and body mass testing on 300 patients with Stage III or IV lung cancer. Some patients would receive a placebo. ...

Shares of Memphis-based GTx Inc. GTx Inc. Latest from The Business Journals Why did you decide to make a move from a firm to being in-house counsel?GTx officers earn cash bonuses for fiscal 2011Memphis drug developer GTx's loss widens in third quarter Follow this company surged on Monday after Citigroup Citigroup Latest from The Business Journals Sen. Sherrod Brown targets Citibank over tax formsSen. Sherrod Brown targets Citibank over tax formsReport: Facebook IPO finally set Follow this company Inc. predicted the company is likely to report positive results from Phase III trials of Ostarine, the company’s latest drug.
GTx's stock rose $1.94, up nearly 50 percent, to close at $5.88 per share.
According to Citigroup (NYSE: C), Ostarine is worth at least $11 per share assuming the Phase III trials are positive. Citigroup added Ostarine to its valuation model for GTx and hiked its target price on the stock from $8 a share to $19. Noting that Ostarine has consistently improved cancer-related lean body mass and physical function in eight prior trials, Citigroup thinks the drug could attract interest from biopharma companies with oncology products.
Ostarine treats the wasting of muscle in cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy. Muscle wasting is a common cancer-related symptom which can begin early in the course of a patient’s malignancy, resulting in decline in physical function and other detrimental clinical consequences. Muscle wasting and muscle weakness are also side effects of many chemotherapy drugs. There are no drugs approved for the prevention and treatment of muscle wasting in patients with cancer, so if Ostarine is approved, it would be one of the first.
Memphis-based GTx (NASDAQ: GTXI) is investing between $12 million and $15 million in the trial, which will include physical and body mass testing on 300 patients with Stage III or IV lung cancer. Some patients would receive a placebo.
GTx launched the trial in July 2011 and expects to have them completed by the fourth quarter.

Read Full Article

[evotecci]

naja, Glpg ist auf diesem Gebiet bis dato auch nicht wirklich aufgefallen......

[Ackergaul]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.643.708 von evotecci am 25.01.12 09:54:33

auf dem Gebiet hat Evotec auch nichts...

[evotecci]

Schöne News....da hat Glpg wohl gegenüber Evt das Rennen gemacht!

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2012-01/22522945…

Ad 634 Deal: Mein Tip steht; Bekanntgabe noch vor den Jahreszahlen

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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.618.208 von evotecci am 19.01.12 17:44:17

Meilenstein Zahlungen (noch für 2011), können noch bis Ende Februar eintrudeln. Phase I Ergebnisse zu IRA und SARM werden wohl noch ein paar Wochen auff sich warten lassen. Auf clinicaltrials sind beide noch nicht als "vollständig" gemeldet. Was mich überrascht hat, ist die kurze Dauer von 0974. Hier kann es im Febr. schon Ergebnisse geben (http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01496937?term=glpg&ran…).

Zu 0634 glaube ich nun, das erst der nächste Trial abgewartet wird, vor Verpartnerung. Frei nach dem Motto: Was kümmern uns unsere Jahres Prognosen?

Grüße

[evotecci]

Im neuen Jahr ist es noch ziemlich ruhig bei Glpg, wenn es auch hinter den Kulissen anders aussehen wird.
Hätte mir eigentlich schon die ein oder andere MS od. Phase 1 results News erhofft.
Was den erhofften 634 Deal angeht, glaube ich, dass Glpg bestrebt sein wird, diesen vor den Jahreszahlen zu präsentieren, um diese in den Hintergrund treten zu lassen. Da es keinen Dealabschluss in 2011 gab, werden die Zahlen tiefrot sein u. auch der Umsatz wird wohl deftig einbrechen.
Sollte aber bis dahin ein guter Deal, sowie weitere gute Pipeline News kommen, kann Glpg mMn dies locker wegstecken.

[Ackergaul]

Mein "70% Tipp", dass 634 in 2011 verparnert wird war wohl nix... Es gibt ja aber auch Stimmen die auf eine Übernahme spekulieren unter anderem hier zu finden:

http://www.debeurs.nl/forum/1276092/GALAPAGOS-NV-GLPG-VULNER…

GALAPAGOS NV (GLPG) VULNERABLE TO COMPETITION, A HOSTILE TAKEOVER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY?

Intro:
A very brief output of my thoughts on the actual (publicly known) situation of Galapagos NV.
There's always happening more than publicly announced, so I stick with what is published.


From the Galapagos NV homepage:
'Galapagos has entered into long term alliances for the majority of its research programs with top ten pharma companies.
These risk sharing alliances enable Galapagos to build a pipeline of more than 50 programs, based predominantly on proprietary targets that the Company has identified.'

'Galapagos’ most advanced candidate drug GLPG0634 shows excellent safety and efficacy in rheumatoid arthritis patients and is fully proprietary to Galapagos.
With GLPG0634, Galapagos demonstrates its capabilities in developing novel medicines for difficult to cure diseases.'

Article: 'Galapagos’ GLPG0634 shows excellent efficacy and safety in rheumatoid arthritis Phase II study
http://www.glpg.com/index.php/download_file/view/753/164/ '


So what?:
The long term alliances are a major part of Galapagos' strategy, different partners in this strategy makes Galapagos less attractive for a takeover.
On the 22nd of November in 2011 Galapagos announced very promising results on one of it's programmes GLPG0634.
GLPG0634 isn't a partnered programme, Galapagos currently has full rights over GLPG0634.


What could it mean?:
Because GLPG0634 isn't a partnered programme yet, a (hostile) takeover to get the full rights on GLPG0634 could turn out to be very lucrative.
This to either further complete the GLPG0634 development+marketing or to slow GLGP0634 down/cancel it in order to save another RA product in someone else's pipeline.
The RA market is a 2-digits multibillion market and a growing market.
If GLPG0634 turns out te be succesfull and safe in further trials, it could take a pretty good share of the RA market if authorised for the market.
Not only because of the safety and efficacy results, but also because a once daily oral dose is a very convenient improvement over injections for patients.
Furthermore if a (hostile) takeover party purchases Galapagos for it's GLPG0634 programme before GLPG0634 is partnered away, it can also reduce the risk of the takeover costs with the incomes of Galapagos' other divisions activities and partnered projects.


Wishful Thinking?
Yes for me it is, albeit partly. And, ofcourse, I like Xmas Presents!
Current actualities point to an opportunity that I see in the current situation of Galapagos for (hostile) takeover parties.


Estimated Value?
Hard to determine and not getting to details here, but if an offer occurs I won't be surprised the takeover party would try to get away with whole Galapagos for $750M (€577M). Note that I don't mean that GLPG0634 is worth $750M, I mean the total Galapagos NV.
Especially when there are no other takeover parties competing for the ownership of the rights for GLPG0634, the chances of such an offer turning out succesful for the takeover party are good.
Total number of outstanding shares as of 19 December 2011: 26,421,441
Number of outstanding warrants as of 19 December 2011: 3,342,602
With EUR/US DOLLAR = 1.30 an offer of $750M is $28,39/€21,84 (diluted:$25,20/€19,38)


Your thought and ideas?
Dare to share.