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Syrtakihans
>> Das Konzernergebnis nach Minderheiten bzw. das EPS eines einzelnen GJ zu schätzen ist
>> schwierig, weil die Minderheitenanteile und die Steuerquote aufgrund der komplexen Konzernstruktur
>> sehr unsicher sind. EBT bzw. EBIT sind schon einfacher.
Mit der Berechnung des Minderheitenanteils muss ich mich noch detailliert auseinandersetzen. Meine Zahlenreihe ist nach Steuern und Minderheiten. D.h. selbst wenn man das berücksichtigt, hat man das Muster, dass das 2HJ deutlich über dem 1HJ liegt. Und es für einen Maschinenbauer ein zu erwartendes Muster, weil die üblicherweise im Q3 ihr stärkstes Quartal haben.
Dazu kommt bei KSB noch die Besonderheit, dass sie im 2HJ i.d.R. einen geringeren Personalaufwand haben als im 1HJ, obwohl das 2HJ umsatzstärker ist.
Was die Steuerquote angeht, habe ich es mir einfach gemacht. Gemäß Aussage im Call, soll sie im Gesamtjahr 2023 um die 27 % liegen: „So my message to you is taxes on income will be at about 27% at the end of the year.”
>> Alle paar Jahr läuft KSB durch einen Makrozyklus, der die Marge steigen lässt. Dem folgt dann die
>> Börse mit dem Glauben, dass die operative Marge wegen x-beliebiger Gründe nachhaltig auf ein
>> höheres Niveau steigt.
Die Gefahr sehe ich auch, weshalb ich besser verstehen möchte, woher der Anstieg genau kommt. Andererseits stimmte ich hugohebel zu, dass das Management in den letzten Jahren einiges verändert hat, wie es im Call auch darlegt. Das kann natürlich auch zu dauerhaft höheren Margen führen. Im folgenden dazu ein Ausschnitt, was sie dazu gesagt haben:
Dr. Stephan Timmermann:
“What are the drivers of this success? And for sure I could elaborate quite a few minutes on this, but I've tried to summarize it in one little slide.
The key drivers of this success, they are graspable [überschaubar].
1.) Company organization with focus on markets
It's for one the organization, that we have put in place as the result of our strategy program Client 21. We put Client 21 in place in 2020 just before Corona hit us. This strategy, which focuses on markets and divides our company into the pumps division, the valves division and our Supreme Service division, is really starting to reap the crop.
2.) Focus on aftersales: KSB SupremeServ
Having said this, KSB SupremeServ is one of the muscles of our profitability. We started this journey in 2018 by changing the mindset, which is connected to this, to really make a company focused on after sales. Yes, slowly but surely it is showing an impact. And there's a lot of more improvement to go.
3.) Restructuring of the parent company: “KGaA project” (red list countries)
Then in pinpointing subsidiaries which are making a loss. I mean, this is basic entrepreneurial work. But we have professionalized this. And for sure one of the biggest chance, that we took on the radar screen was the company that headquarters our KSB world. It is what we call in Germany the KGaA, which is the company, of which you have bought the stocks from. The KGaA encompasses all German production plants - in Pegnitz, in Halle, in Frankenthal and the big headquarter - around 4.000 employees. We had sizable problems of being profitable in this entity. With a project, which we called basically restructuring the KGaA started in 2020, we have managed to sizably reduce the losses and today we record a very, very sizable profit. And this is just the beginning of the journey.
4.) Cost awareness and prudence
If you do all of this, you change mindsets. And for sure one of the most important mindset changes, that we have reached - and this is absolutely essential, especially if you become as profitable as we are today and have the objective of becoming even more profitable - is both cost awareness and prudence. You can only spend the euro once. And I think a lot of things have gone into this - all around the world - to raise this cost awareness.
5.) Less mistakes / fail fast
Closely related to this: We have lost a lot of money in the past by making mistakes. By taking projects into our books, which were economically either not viable or which were technologically not executable, the way that we have predicted it. And I think of Lee Tunnel - some of you might know it - was an absolute disaster and this loss of course has to be compensated. I would say, with all the risk mitigation programs, that we have in place today, the possibility that we really have a sizable loss making project - of course it cannot be avoided; where people work, they make mistakes - is much, much, much smaller than it was in the past. And we see this in our fiscal results. And what we have learned - and again this is something which is connected to culture - if we make mistakes, we fail fast. We have managed to see, that our employees report mistakes immediately. And this is good. Then we can act fast, get in contact with the customer and learn from of our mistakes.
6.) Securing contribution margin (smart price increase & smart sourcing)
In addition to this, of course, especially in those times, when prices were surging on the commodity side, we did a lot of work. On the one side to talk to the market, but also to negotiate with our suppliers that the increase on the procurement side stays in certain limits. And with this, we were able to secure our contribution margin.
7.) Excellent global cooperation: grow the strengths, reduce the weaknesses
On top of this - and closely connected with the corona effects, which basically prevented everybody from traveling - we gained an excellent collaboration across the world. 100 KSB companies all around the world aligned an working via Skype and Microsoft teams, supporting those, who - for whatever reason - had a weak phase in the economic development and pushing those who are really making the profit and to make those even stronger.
8.) Luck and hard work
And last not least. And this is also normal, but absolutely necessary - a bit of luck and a lot of hard work from all our 15,700 employees. This is how the success story happened. And with these very short explanations, I think Matthias, now it's your turn to put a little bit of meat to the bone and deep dive into the economic figures of the first half year.”
Später haben Sie dann noch deutlich gemacht, dass auch das Segment Armarturen wieder in die Gewinnzone geführt werden soll:
Dr. Matthias Schmitz:
„What we have in mind is to restructure the valve business, that it comes to a certain ROS quality [=EBT-Margin] in the next two to three years. Therefore, we have worked out a plan. And for the whole of the business, it should be a meaningful single digit ROS number - Stephan, what do you think is the number? About 5 to 6%? - which we have in mind in a closer time frame.
Dr. Stephan Timmermann:
Latest next year, I hope we will get there this year, but latest next year.
An anderen stellen im Call führen sie das eine oder andere weiter aus. Wie gesagt, es lohnt sich, den Call anzuhören.
>> Die Dividendenhöhe ist übrigens irrelevant für die Rendite einer Aktienanlage.
Ich wäre Dir dankbar, wenn Du diesen Gedankengang erklären würdest. Ich kann diese Aussage nämlich nicht nachvollziehen.
>> es gibt aber auch Beispiele mit einer ähnlichen Kontruktion (z.B. Novo Nordisk und seiner Stiftung als
>> Hauptktionär), die durchaus an der Börse reüssieren (und wie!);
Das hat infomi Recht. Fresenius hat neben der Stiftung sogar noch die gleiche Rechtsform wie KSB und war auch Jahrzehnte lang erfolgreich. Und auch jetzt schrecken die nicht vor einem erheblichen Konzernumbau zurück, um Werte zu heben. Insofern kann man nicht pauschal damit argumentieren, dass die Konstruktion aktionärsfeindlich ist. Wie immer gibt es solche und solche.