Original-Research

Marley Spoon Group SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Marley Spoon Group SE - von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu Marley Spoon Group SE

Unternehmen: Marley Spoon Group SE
ISIN: LU2380748603

Anlass der Studie: Update
Empfehlung: BUY
seit: 15.02.2024
Kursziel: 8.00
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Mark Schüssler

Strategic transactions closed; est. & PT chg.

Marley Spoon Group ('MSG') closed the strategic transactions announced on January 31st. Here is what you need to know:

Acquisition of BistroMD. MSG closed the acquisition of BistroMD, a leading doctor-designed ready-toeat (RTE) meal plan company in the US (c. EUR 35m revenues in 2023), offering MSG an opportunity to use its own data and technology platform to generate synergies and performance improvements over time. While BistroMD should currently be loss-making due to lack of sufficient scale (c. 30% contribution margin, eNuW), fulfilment, G&A, and marketing expenses are seen to decrease significantly from currently c. EUR 27.5m (eNuW) to c. EUR 20m by 2025e (eNuW) thanks to the integration into MSG's platform. In sum, we regard BistroMD as a strategically sensible add-on as it adds a double-digit growing RTE business that capitalizes on the increasing health & wellness consciousness of the American consumer.
Depending on the underlying share price assumed, the acquisition price of around EUR 15m (eNuW) comprises c. EUR 1113m in debt as well as 1.4m MSG shares, along with an earn-out of up to 1.2m additional shares (12 months post-closing), and 450k warrants with strike prices ranging from EUR 15 to EUR 20. Assuming a share price of EUR 2.00, MSG acquires BistroMD at an EV/Sales FY23 multiple 0.43x, a 48% premium to MSG's own current valuation of 0.29x.
Partnership with FreshRealm. Furthermore, MSG entered into a 7-year strategic partnership for manufacturing and fulfilment with FreshRealm by selling its US operating assets for EUR 22m to FreshRealm, which will operate the fulfilment centre and become MSG's exclusive operations partner in the US. This provides Marley Spoon with a scalable and capitalefficient way of operating in the US, delegating assetheavy fulfilment and warehouse operations (back-end) to an experienced partner while continuing to focus its investments on customer-facing competencies (front-end). Net cost savings are seen to amount to c. EUR 12m in G&A and should thus favourably impact margins going forward.

Debt terms & capital raise. Both deals are supported by an c. EUR 8m equity raise through c. 2m treasury shares at EUR 4.00 per share. Moreover, Runway, the company's biggest debtholder, supports these transactions and agreed to a 12-months extension of the debt facilities' interest-only period to January 2026 and maturity date to June 2027. Upon closure of the transactions, MSG will repay Runway EUR 10.3m of the outstanding loan balance. Importantly, the asset sale, capital raise, and debt facility extension provide Marley Spoon with ample breathing room to reinvigorate its meal-kit and adjacent operations as well as time to successfully integrate its recent acquisitions.

Growth outlook. Including the financial impact of the transactions described above, Marley Spoon is well-positioned to return to profitable topline growth, reaching c. EUR 384m sales (+16.9% yoy, eNuW) and c. EUR 2m operating EBITDA (+1.4ppts yoy, eNuW) in FY24e. This should mainly be driven by a return to active customer growth to c. 211k (+ 12% yoy, eNuW), and leverage in its multi-region and multi-brand meal kit platform to
1. further penetrate the still vastly underpenetrated $ 7tn global food & grocery market, harnessing deep-seated consumer trends like convenience and wellness;
2. grow basket size via more differentiated service offerings (AI-driven recipe development and ranking for +100 weekly recipe options); 3. and realize revenue and cost synergies from its newly acquired BistroMD and FreshRealm partnerships going forward.

The Group remains attractively priced trading at only 0.28x EV/Sales 2024e, leading us to reiterate our BUY rating with a changed PT of EUR 8.00 (old: EUR 8.60) based on DCF.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/28897.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: [e-mail]
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++

übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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Die 468 SPAC II Registered (A) Aktie wird zum Zeitpunkt der Veröffentlichung der Nachricht mit einem Plus von +9,17 % und einem Kurs von 2,62EUR auf Xetra (14. Februar 2024, 17:35 Uhr) gehandelt.

Rating: BUY
Analyst: