thyssenkrupp - stahl ins depot ? (Seite 1448)

[Arithiel]

Ich würde meinen Thyssen Krupp steht kurz vor Turnaround,
ich hab mir schon mal einige aussichtsreiche Optionscheine auf`s Korn genommen z.B.:-

ThyssenKrupp-Call 200%-Chance
Optionsschein Trader

Die Experten vom "Optionsschein Trader" sehen in dem Call (ISIN IT0003763171/ WKN A0CVQ1) der UniCredito Italiano auf die Aktie von ThyssenKrupp (ISIN DE0007500001/ WKN 750000) eine 200%-Chance.

Der Stahlkonzern habe im ersten Halbjahr 2004/2005 vom anhaltenden Stahlboom und dem Verkauf von Beteiligungen profitiert. Der Überschuss sei demnach auf 1,3 Mrd. Euro verdreifacht worden. Der Umsatz habe um 16% auf 20,5 Mrd. Euro zugelegt. Für das Gesamtjahr stelle der Vorstand eine "insgesamt erfreuliche Geschäftsentwicklung" in Aussicht. Wegen der stark gestiegenen Rohstoffpreise werde der DAX-Konzern seine Preise für Flachstahl weiter anheben.

Neben den überzeugenden Fundamentaldaten spreche auch die Charttechnik - wenn auch zur Zeit nur aus kurzfristiger Sicht - für den Titel. So halte man die Unterstützung bei 14 Euro für plausibel, da sie schon einmal im letzten Jahr gehalten habe.

Der o.a. Call der UniCredito Italiano auf die Aktie von ThyssenKrupp ist ein knallharter Warrant für spekulative Profis, so die Experten vom "Optionsschein Trader".

WKN A0CVQ1
OS-Typ Amerik. Call
Emittent UniCredito Italiano
Underlying ThyssenKrupp
Basispreis 16,50 EUR
Kurs Underlying 14,39 EUR
Bezugsverhältnis 2/1
Laufzeit 02.09.05
Aufgeld in % 15,43
Omega 16,947
Preis OS 0,060 Euro

[tradingfuchs]

Das heutige freundliche Umfeld lockt auch Käufer für ThyssenKrupp, der Titel notiert tagesaktuell recht fest.

In den letzten Tagen verteuerten sich die Aktien mit einem Plus von immerhin vier Prozent in den letzten zehn Handelstagen stärker als der Marktdurchschnitt, s.a. http://www.traducer.de/star/include/chart2ab.htm

Kurzfristig dürfte durchaus weiteres Kurspotenzial gegeben sein, zumindest aus technischer Sicht.
Der kurzfristige Relative Stärke Index rangiert noch im neutralen Bereich.


Gruß tf

[hinkelstone]

[posting]16.713.444 von Bin_blitzblank am 25.05.05 18:10:51[/posting]Hi Bin_blitzblank , im Sinne von

" Bodenbildung " , um dann neue Höhen zu erklimmen so in Richtung 17,50 € und ( evt. ) noch viel weiter........................................

[Salazie]

mmhh, heute morgen gabs druck auf die stahlwerte in japan und in usa siehts offensichtlich auch etwas eingetrübt aus, wenn man den meldungen glauben schenken will

>THE RATINGS GAME

Steel stocks under pressure
UBS says pricing feels pinch of negative factors

By August Cole, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:35 PM ET May 25, 2005
E-mail it | Print | Discuss | Alert | Reprint |

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- A forecast of weaker steel prices this summer weighed on the sector`s stocks Wednesday as UBS equity analysts said overcapacity, softer auto production and imports are combining to hurt the industry.

For many of the steel sector`s stocks, UBS lowered its price targets.

"At this time, we do not generally believe U.S. steel names look cheap amid deteriorating fundamentals, which make sheet price forecasts and shipment estimates vulnerable," UBS analyst Timna Tanners said in a note to clients. UBS has done banking work for some of the steel companies covered by the analyst and is a market maker in some of the shares.

The price target for neutral-rated shares of United States Steel Corp. (X: news, chart, profile) was reduced to $46 from $52. For Steel Dynamics (STLD: news, chart, profile) , rated neutral, the price target was reduced by $3, to $32. Neutral-rated Wheeling Pittsburgh Corp.`s (WPSC: news, chart, profile) price target was lowered to $18 from $19.

Price targets for Oregon Steel Mills (OS: news, chart, profile) , rated by UBS as buy, and for neutral-rated Nucor Corp. (NUE: news, chart, profile) were unchanged at $30 and $59, respectively.

So far this year, steel prices have been under pressure.

Tanners said prices for hot-rolled steel have fallen since January from $660 a ton to $540 a ton. That`s below the 2005 estimate of $560 a ton, which was lowered 8%, and the estimate for next year of $465, reduced by 10%.

For benchmark sheet prices, the 2005 forecast is now $520 a ton, down from $550 previously.

"U.S. steel market fundamentals have deteriorated more quickly than we had expected to date in 2005, prompting us to lower our 2005 and 2006 sheet price estimates in line with recent spot-market corrections," Tanners said.

Bar and plate prices have fared better, according to the analyst.

As for the longer term, Tanners noted that the industry also has to contend with rising overseas steel capacity, with China increasing production to meet demand.

In midday trading, shares of U.S. Steel fell 3.6% to $38.55, while Steel Dynamics fell 3.9% to $26.45 and Wheeling Pittsburgh lost 3.5% to $17.35.

Oregon Steel fell 3.3% to $15.70, while Nucor fell 1.8% to $50.80.

Also lower were Mittal Steel Co. (MT: news, chart, profile) , down 5.9% to $23.20, and AK Steel Holding (AKS: news, chart, profile) , down 7% to $7.01.

Tanners also noted that the group`s shares fell earlier this year in March and that "preempted some of the negative sentiment and data in the sector."

Nucor stock is about flat since the beginning of the year, while others have fallen sharply. Steel Dynamics has lost about 26%, with U.S. Steel down about 21% so far in 2005.


August Cole is an editor for MarketWatch in San Francisco.<

[Bin_blitzblank]

[posting]16.713.672 von ipc100euro am 25.05.05 18:27:46[/posting]Einerseits will ich natürlich dass die Aktie steigt.
Andererseits würde ich einen weiteren Kursrückgang als eine hervorragende Chance zur Aufstockung meines Bestandes sehen.
Denn irgendwann werden andere auch merken,dass TK nicht nur irgendsoein Stahlkocher ist.

[ipc100euro]

ganz einfach
damit er nicht unter die 14 fällt

ganz im ernst
stabilisierung bringt keinem was
weder für aktionäre, noch für os-inhaber - egal ob put oder call.
im vergleich zu salzgitter ist thyssen unterbewertet.

[Bin_blitzblank]

[posting]16.710.119 von hinkelstone am 25.05.05 13:14:23[/posting]Und warum????

[hinkelstone]

Hi @ all ,

würde mir sehr entgegenkommen , wenn sich der Kurs Thyssen Krupp so bei 14,33 € stabilisieren würde ! ! !

[Salazie]

thyssenkrupp konnte leider heute nicht so richtig von der spekulation auf einen baldigen regierungswechsel profitieren.

wenn die merkel allerdings erstmal den transrapid entdeckt.....

[frankie62]

@ 206 von codiman
Leider können sich auch Experten täuschen

Steel price sagging on macro control


Steel prices, which saw a soaring rise in China after the Shanghai-based largest steelmaker, Baosteel, accepted a 71.5 percent price hike for iron ore in an agreement with international suppliers in February, has begun sagging since the government adopted a series of macro-control measures, industry insiders said.

The steel price in eastern China declined by 70 yuan (US$8.46) per ton following the decision of the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation to abolish the export tax rebate policy for billet starting on April 1.

The industry is estimated to lose 3 billion yuan (US$362.76 million) in profits this year due to the policy. The losses may rise further to 4.7 billion yuan (US$568.3 million) since the administration decided to lower the export drawback policy for steel from 13 percent to 11 percent starting on May 1. The move aimed to discourage exports to ensure the domestic demand for steel.

The government`s macro-control measures aim to ensure a "soft landing" of the nation`s overheating economy, which grew 9.5 percent in the first quarter of this year.

"March 31, 2005 is a turning point for China`s domestic steel price," said Chen Ming, director in charge of the information consultant department of the Shanghai Steel Electronic Trading Market. Over the past month, the average price of plates on the domestic market dropped by 400 yuan (US$48.37) per ton, down 6 percent over the same period of the previous year, Chen said. The price of cold-rolling plate fell 1,000 yuan (US$121) during the period in northern China. He attributed the dramatic rise and fall of the steel prices to the macro-control measures of the government, which caused agents to dump steel products, and the recent fluctuations of the foreign exchange rate on the international market. The government`s determination to curb the soaring housing prices this year is also a factor, industry insiders said. This policy will curb the domestic demand for steel.

"It`s likely that the steel price will continue to fall as the supply is increasing and the demand is declining," said Chen.

According to data provided by the trading market, currently, there are 460,000 tons of steel stockpiled in Beijing, 160,000 tons stockpiled in Tianjin. Another 400,000 tons of steel are stocked in Shanghai, and 500,000 tons stockpiled in south China`s Guangzhou, and 150,000 tons in Shenyang in Northeast China.

An executive meeting of the State Council on April 20 called on China`s steel mills to adjust product structure, reduce energy and resource consumption, regroup and adopt measures to prevent from overexpansion of their production capacity. Currently, there are more than 800 iron and steel firms in China.

China`s steel output has ranked first in the world for the past nine consecutive years, accounting for 14 percent of the world`s total. In 2003, the steel output reached 220 million tons, and is projected to climb to 350 million tons this year, according to the China Iron and Steel Association. Meanwhile, China`s steel demand has risen 20 percent a year on average since 2000. Experts predict that China will maintain high growth this year. The country`s demand for steel will exceed 340 million tons.

Source: Xinhua
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200505/22/eng20050522_1862…

Von TK bin ich immer noch überzeugt, obwohl meine Prognose für das 2.Q. zu optimistisch war.

mfg frankie62