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Im Malcy-Blog gab es eine Beschreibung der Probleme:
https://www.malcysblog.com/2024/04/oil-price-deltic-sintana-…
Deltic Energy
Deltic has provided the following update in relation to its Pensacola Discovery on Licence P2252 in the Southern North Sea in which Deltic holds a 30% interest.
Well Planning and Timing
Following commitment to the appraisal well in December 2023, operational planning for the Pensacola appraisal well has continued to progress according to plan.
In anticipation of drilling the Pensacola appraisal well, long lead items have been ordered, the geophysical site survey over the proposed well location has been completed and the final geotechnical site survey is scheduled to take place in May/June 2024.
The rig contract was entered into in February which secured the Valaris 123 heavy duty jack-up drilling unit to drill both the Selene exploration well and Pensacola appraisal well, with the Pensacola well due to be drilled immediately following completion of Selene operations.
The rig is currently operating in the Central North Sea following which it will move to Selene. Subject to the timing of the completion of Selene, the Pensacola well remains on track to be drilled in Q4 2024.
Farm-out Process
The feedback from Deltic’s Pensacola farm-out process has indicated that the continual tinkering with the Energy Profits Levy and resultant fiscal uncertainty created by the current government, along with recent rhetoric emanating from the Labour Party, have had a severely negative effect on the ability of UK Exploration and Production (E&P) companies to commit to long term investments in the North Sea. This has resulted in many operators diverting capital away from the UKCS or delaying investment decisions, especially with respect to new large-scale opportunities like Pensacola.
Against this hostile political environment, and despite the Company’s best efforts, Deltic have not yet been able to secure a farm-out partner for Pensacola and although there are a number of live discussions with respect to a way forward on Pensacola, there is a risk that a farm-out may not be secured before the end of May 2024. We remain of the view that Pensacola represents an excellent value-driven opportunity for the right partner and would be willing to engage with any additional potential partners.
Equity Capital Markets
The recent difficult state of UK equity markets, especially for smaller companies, has been well publicised. This, coupled with the impact of the political and fiscal regime on UK E&P company valuations and investor sentiment means that the Board believes that accessing traditional equity capital, as the Company has successfully done in the past, is unlikely to be a viable option to allow Deltic to meet its 30% share of the Pensacola well (currently estimated to be roughly GBP£15 million net to Deltic).
Alongside its ongoing farm out process, Deltic will continue to consider alternative sources of capital and non-traditional funding structures to mitigate costs and/or secure its equity position in the Pensacola well. However, there is no guarantee that such capital will be available or available on acceptable terms. It is particularly frustrating for the Company as a recently commissioned Competent Person’s Report by RPS Energy assessed Pensacola as having a 2C NPV10 of approximately USD$200 million net to Deltic, representing a multiple of the Company’s current market capitalisation.
Potential for Licence Withdrawal
If an industry and/or funding solution is not in place by the end of May 2024, being the point at which Deltic will be required to demonstrate its capacity to fund its share of costs, Deltic will be required to take steps to ensure the Company is not exposed to further expenditure on the Pensacola well if there is no reasonable expectation that the Company will be able to meet those additional liabilities which will be incurred going forward.
In such circumstances, Deltic will be required to withdraw from the Pensacola licence and transfer its interest in Pensacola to the Joint Venture partners.
Graham Swindells, Chief Executive of Deltic Energy, commented:
“The struggle to find a way forward on a project like Pensacola, which is one of the largest discoveries in the North Sea in recent decades, is a real-world consequence of our political leadership using the nationally important oil and gas industry as a political football at a time when energy security is of paramount importance.
Given the impact of fiscal and political uncertainty on investment decisions we have seen a shift away from investment in larger standalone projects, like Pensacola, towards more affordable, lower risk opportunities which defer decommissioning or increase infrastructure life such as Selene, and the Company’s Syros prospect in the Central North Sea, where we have seen an enhanced level of interest.
We look forward to the start of drilling operations on the high impact Selene exploration well, in which Deltic is fully carried for the estimated cost of the success case well, which remains due to spud in July 2024. In the meantime, we will continue to pursue all avenues to progress Pensacola and will update the market in due course.”
Although there have been a number of warnings from UKCS operators and participants since the EPL was brought in, the Looney tax as I refer to it has not yet in my view potentially taken its toll as badly as Deltic are warning this morning.
The company has been doing extremely well in the lead up to delivery of its two major assets and the summer was looking exciting with a rig hired to drill back to back wells on Selene and Pensacola. But the ongoing pillage of the oil sector by the current Government as well as the likelihood of a certain Labour administration later in the year has taken the wind out of the sails of the UK oil & gas industry.
And when politicians of all colours remove all incentive from investing in the UK, for transition energy that will generate necessary domestic power and also be highly attractive in terms of carbon footprint compared to imported hydrocarbons then one has to worry about both fiscal and energy common sense.
So this is a hugely frustrating situation which is threatening the participation of a domestic company in what is the biggest find in the Southern North Sea in over ten years. As I understand it Deltic has been in dialogue with a number of parties of differing nature and whilst none has put up yet, a satisfactory conclusion is not yet out of the question.
So where does this leave Deltic now? The worst case is that in the absence of a partner they will have to put the stake in Pensacola back to the partners as soon as Shell issues the AFE. As the statement says an equity issue is out of the question but a partner of some sort is still possible, just as that date is expected to be around the end of May.
The good news is that all is not lost, investors are right to be cross about politicians who know nothing about what is a significant revenue contributor and less about what it brings to the economy as a whole but before Pensacola is scheduled to drill, the Selene well will spud in late July.
My valuation of Deltic shows that I already had Selene in the valuation for more than Pensacola, it is one important stage further down the line and can deliver sooner than Pensacola, not least due to local infrastructure potentially speeding up development and making it economically attractive should the well succeed. At Selene Deltic are fully carried and will be at a critical phase before long, less so at Pensacola.
Clearly my current Target Price for Deltic will have to be reduced, I am carrying 200p which is not outwith the market range but probably near the top. But within that there is, as I said more in for Selene which remains unaltered, even if I take out Pensacola entirely or leave just option value then I can still get to something over 100p per share, which when you look at Deltic shares at 20p then there is very decent upside.
So this is by no means the end of the road, indeed if the political foolishness carries on then ironically the Selene development may be one of the last in the UKCS, it looks to me to be worth a very decent multiple of the current Deltic share price and accordingly with what I consider to be at the very least an option on Pensacola there is still plenty of upside.
Petronius
Im Malcy-Blog gab es eine Beschreibung der Probleme:
https://www.malcysblog.com/2024/04/oil-price-deltic-sintana-…
Deltic Energy
Deltic has provided the following update in relation to its Pensacola Discovery on Licence P2252 in the Southern North Sea in which Deltic holds a 30% interest.
Well Planning and Timing
Following commitment to the appraisal well in December 2023, operational planning for the Pensacola appraisal well has continued to progress according to plan.
In anticipation of drilling the Pensacola appraisal well, long lead items have been ordered, the geophysical site survey over the proposed well location has been completed and the final geotechnical site survey is scheduled to take place in May/June 2024.
The rig contract was entered into in February which secured the Valaris 123 heavy duty jack-up drilling unit to drill both the Selene exploration well and Pensacola appraisal well, with the Pensacola well due to be drilled immediately following completion of Selene operations.
The rig is currently operating in the Central North Sea following which it will move to Selene. Subject to the timing of the completion of Selene, the Pensacola well remains on track to be drilled in Q4 2024.
Farm-out Process
The feedback from Deltic’s Pensacola farm-out process has indicated that the continual tinkering with the Energy Profits Levy and resultant fiscal uncertainty created by the current government, along with recent rhetoric emanating from the Labour Party, have had a severely negative effect on the ability of UK Exploration and Production (E&P) companies to commit to long term investments in the North Sea. This has resulted in many operators diverting capital away from the UKCS or delaying investment decisions, especially with respect to new large-scale opportunities like Pensacola.
Against this hostile political environment, and despite the Company’s best efforts, Deltic have not yet been able to secure a farm-out partner for Pensacola and although there are a number of live discussions with respect to a way forward on Pensacola, there is a risk that a farm-out may not be secured before the end of May 2024. We remain of the view that Pensacola represents an excellent value-driven opportunity for the right partner and would be willing to engage with any additional potential partners.
Equity Capital Markets
The recent difficult state of UK equity markets, especially for smaller companies, has been well publicised. This, coupled with the impact of the political and fiscal regime on UK E&P company valuations and investor sentiment means that the Board believes that accessing traditional equity capital, as the Company has successfully done in the past, is unlikely to be a viable option to allow Deltic to meet its 30% share of the Pensacola well (currently estimated to be roughly GBP£15 million net to Deltic).
Alongside its ongoing farm out process, Deltic will continue to consider alternative sources of capital and non-traditional funding structures to mitigate costs and/or secure its equity position in the Pensacola well. However, there is no guarantee that such capital will be available or available on acceptable terms. It is particularly frustrating for the Company as a recently commissioned Competent Person’s Report by RPS Energy assessed Pensacola as having a 2C NPV10 of approximately USD$200 million net to Deltic, representing a multiple of the Company’s current market capitalisation.
Potential for Licence Withdrawal
If an industry and/or funding solution is not in place by the end of May 2024, being the point at which Deltic will be required to demonstrate its capacity to fund its share of costs, Deltic will be required to take steps to ensure the Company is not exposed to further expenditure on the Pensacola well if there is no reasonable expectation that the Company will be able to meet those additional liabilities which will be incurred going forward.
In such circumstances, Deltic will be required to withdraw from the Pensacola licence and transfer its interest in Pensacola to the Joint Venture partners.
Graham Swindells, Chief Executive of Deltic Energy, commented:
“The struggle to find a way forward on a project like Pensacola, which is one of the largest discoveries in the North Sea in recent decades, is a real-world consequence of our political leadership using the nationally important oil and gas industry as a political football at a time when energy security is of paramount importance.
Given the impact of fiscal and political uncertainty on investment decisions we have seen a shift away from investment in larger standalone projects, like Pensacola, towards more affordable, lower risk opportunities which defer decommissioning or increase infrastructure life such as Selene, and the Company’s Syros prospect in the Central North Sea, where we have seen an enhanced level of interest.
We look forward to the start of drilling operations on the high impact Selene exploration well, in which Deltic is fully carried for the estimated cost of the success case well, which remains due to spud in July 2024. In the meantime, we will continue to pursue all avenues to progress Pensacola and will update the market in due course.”
Although there have been a number of warnings from UKCS operators and participants since the EPL was brought in, the Looney tax as I refer to it has not yet in my view potentially taken its toll as badly as Deltic are warning this morning.
The company has been doing extremely well in the lead up to delivery of its two major assets and the summer was looking exciting with a rig hired to drill back to back wells on Selene and Pensacola. But the ongoing pillage of the oil sector by the current Government as well as the likelihood of a certain Labour administration later in the year has taken the wind out of the sails of the UK oil & gas industry.
And when politicians of all colours remove all incentive from investing in the UK, for transition energy that will generate necessary domestic power and also be highly attractive in terms of carbon footprint compared to imported hydrocarbons then one has to worry about both fiscal and energy common sense.
So this is a hugely frustrating situation which is threatening the participation of a domestic company in what is the biggest find in the Southern North Sea in over ten years. As I understand it Deltic has been in dialogue with a number of parties of differing nature and whilst none has put up yet, a satisfactory conclusion is not yet out of the question.
So where does this leave Deltic now? The worst case is that in the absence of a partner they will have to put the stake in Pensacola back to the partners as soon as Shell issues the AFE. As the statement says an equity issue is out of the question but a partner of some sort is still possible, just as that date is expected to be around the end of May.
The good news is that all is not lost, investors are right to be cross about politicians who know nothing about what is a significant revenue contributor and less about what it brings to the economy as a whole but before Pensacola is scheduled to drill, the Selene well will spud in late July.
My valuation of Deltic shows that I already had Selene in the valuation for more than Pensacola, it is one important stage further down the line and can deliver sooner than Pensacola, not least due to local infrastructure potentially speeding up development and making it economically attractive should the well succeed. At Selene Deltic are fully carried and will be at a critical phase before long, less so at Pensacola.
Clearly my current Target Price for Deltic will have to be reduced, I am carrying 200p which is not outwith the market range but probably near the top. But within that there is, as I said more in for Selene which remains unaltered, even if I take out Pensacola entirely or leave just option value then I can still get to something over 100p per share, which when you look at Deltic shares at 20p then there is very decent upside.
So this is by no means the end of the road, indeed if the political foolishness carries on then ironically the Selene development may be one of the last in the UKCS, it looks to me to be worth a very decent multiple of the current Deltic share price and accordingly with what I consider to be at the very least an option on Pensacola there is still plenty of upside.
Petronius
Und hier nochmal die Meldung aus der Presse:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1046846/…
Gruß A.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1046846/…
Gruß A.
Ich habe bei 0,185£ mal verbilligt.
Moin,
Meldung von heute:
„Deltic Energy PLC - natural resources investing company focused on the North Sea - Awarded two licences over eight blocks by the North Sea Transition Authority in the third tranche of the UK's 33rd Offshore Licencing Round. All blocks are being awarded to Deltic on a 100% equity position and contain a mixture of "small discoveries and low risk" infrastructure-led exploration prospects in the southern North Sea gas basin. "In light of the current fiscal and political environment, Deltic will carefully consider whether accepting further licences in the UK is in the best interest of the business and its shareholders," Deltic adds. Chief Executive Officer Graham Swindells says: "These further Tranche 3 provisional awards further demonstrate the ability of the Deltic team to identify and acquire valuable exploration and appraisal acreage within the [UK continental shelf]. We will now assess each of the provisional awards and carefully consider which, if any, of these awards the company will accept."
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/DELT/earnings-and-trading-deltics…
Gruß Asemi
Meldung von heute:
„Deltic Energy PLC - natural resources investing company focused on the North Sea - Awarded two licences over eight blocks by the North Sea Transition Authority in the third tranche of the UK's 33rd Offshore Licencing Round. All blocks are being awarded to Deltic on a 100% equity position and contain a mixture of "small discoveries and low risk" infrastructure-led exploration prospects in the southern North Sea gas basin. "In light of the current fiscal and political environment, Deltic will carefully consider whether accepting further licences in the UK is in the best interest of the business and its shareholders," Deltic adds. Chief Executive Officer Graham Swindells says: "These further Tranche 3 provisional awards further demonstrate the ability of the Deltic team to identify and acquire valuable exploration and appraisal acreage within the [UK continental shelf]. We will now assess each of the provisional awards and carefully consider which, if any, of these awards the company will accept."
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/DELT/earnings-and-trading-deltics…
Gruß Asemi
Ja, ärgerlich….
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 75.706.143 von Asemi am 30.04.24 09:17:08Jetzt schon fast halbiert. Schon ein tolles Investment was wir haben.
Habe zum Glück nicht viel drin. Habe leider mal wieder gegen meine empirischen Erfahrungen, Finger weg von Ölexplorern, eine kleine Position riskiert.
Habe zum Glück nicht viel drin. Habe leider mal wieder gegen meine empirischen Erfahrungen, Finger weg von Ölexplorern, eine kleine Position riskiert.
Zack, minus 25% zur Börseneröffnung in London….
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 75.705.822 von Andrija am 30.04.24 08:50:26Japp, ich hoffe, dass es nur eine Drohung ist, Pensacola aufzugeben…
Gruß Asemi
Gruß Asemi
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 75.705.747 von Asemi am 30.04.24 08:43:44Hört sich nach einer Kapitalerhöhung an.
Guten Morgen,
das hier liest sich leider nicht gut…. Meldung von heute:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DELT/pensacola-update-soxmfg025hje…
Gruß Asemi
das hier liest sich leider nicht gut…. Meldung von heute:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DELT/pensacola-update-soxmfg025hje…
Gruß Asemi
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